Project 04 — Three-Statement Model | Luminary AI

Key Metrics

Starting MRR

$285K

Jan 2024 (seed close)

Month 18 MRR (Base)

$2.6M

14% MoM growth

EBITDA Breakeven (Base)

Month 7

Jul 2024

ON TRACK

Cash at Month 18 (Base)

$13.1M

Never drops below $4M

SAFE

Blended Gross Margin

65%

Benchmark reached Month 12 (base)

Cumulative EBITDA 18mo (Base)

$8.5M

Series A path clear

Cash Runway — All Scenarios

18-Month Cash Balance by Growth Scenario

$4M seed round closes Month 1 · Critical threshold: $500K · Series A trigger line shown

P&L Analysis

Monthly Revenue vs COGS vs OpEx

Base scenario — see toggle for others

EBITDA Margin % Over Time

All scenarios — convergence toward profitability

Month 12 Cash Flow Waterfall

Cash Flow Components at Fiscal Year-End (Month 12)

Base scenario · Values in $000s

Scenario Comparison — Milestone Months

Month / Period

Cash — Conservative

Cash — Base

Cash — Aggressive

Divergence Note

New SQL Concepts

CHALLENGE 1

SUM() OVER (PARTITION BY)

Window aggregate that computes a running total without collapsing rows — produces a cumulative value alongside every individual record.

SUM($C$2:C2) copied down

CHALLENGE 2

ROWS UNBOUNDED PRECEDING

Frame clause telling the window function to accumulate from the very first row up to and including the current row — the cash runway builder.

Opening balance + cumulative column

CHALLENGE 3

UNION ALL

Stacks rows from multiple SELECT statements vertically. Assembles the three-statement model (P&L + BS + CF) into one executive-summary result set.

Manual copy-paste across 3 tabs

CHALLENGE 4

Correlated Subquery

A subquery that references outer query values, running once per row. Used to pivot scenario values into side-by-side comparison columns.

Excel Scenario Manager / Data Table

CHALLENGE 5A

MIN() with GROUP BY filter

Finds the first month where a condition is true (EBITDA > 0) per group — the inflection point detector.

MATCH + MIN across conditional range

CHALLENGE 5B

RANK() OVER()

Assigns a competitive rank to each row based on an ORDER BY expression, without collapsing grouped data. Used to rank scenarios by total EBITDA.

=RANK(value, range, 0) — but across grouped results

Key Findings

Base Scenario — Series A Path Clear

EBITDA breakeven at Month 7. Cash never approaches the $500K critical threshold. 18-month cumulative EBITDA of $8.5M positions Luminary AI for a Series A at standard 10× ARR multiples.

Conservative — Bridge Round Story

Seed buffer holds cash above $4M throughout, but cumulative EBITDA of only $1.6M is insufficient for Series A. A $1.5M bridge or 30% OpEx cut is required if conservative trend persists past Month 12.

Aggressive — Before the Trigger

EBITDA positive from Month 2. Operating cash flow breakeven by Month 7. $8.4M ARR run rate by Month 18 implies ~$84M Series A valuation — a 21× return on seed.

COGS Benchmark Gap Persists

Even in the aggressive scenario, blended gross margin only reaches the 65% benchmark at Month 12. Infrastructure cost (GPU/cloud) remains the bottleneck — consistent with Project 03 findings.

Scenario Divergence Is the Real Risk

Conservative vs. aggressive cash gap grows from $0 at Month 1 to $25M at Month 18. GTM execution in Months 7–10 is the most consequential period — it's when the trajectories permanently split.

Decision Enabled

Board-Ready Recommendation

Three-statement model reveals a 14-month base-case runway post-seed, with EBITDA breakeven at Month 7 and cash inflection at Month 10 under conservative growth. The aggressive scenario achieves operating cash flow breakeven before the Series A trigger, reaching $8.4M ARR run rate by Month 18. Board recommendation: maintain base hiring plan through Month 6, then gate headcount additions on MoM ARR growth exceeding 12%. Trigger Series A process no later than Month 12 regardless of scenario — lead time for a funded close is 4–6 months.

Gate headcount on 12% MoM ARR Series A process → Month 12 Aggressive: $84M implied valuation Conservative: bridge needed by Month 12 COGS optimization → target 65% by Month 8 Months 7–10: critical GTM window

Portfolio Card

PROJECT 04 — Three-Statement Financial Model & Cash Flow Forecast

Business Question: Given current revenue, COGS, and burn, what is the realistic cash runway under Conservative, Base, and Aggressive growth scenarios — and where are the inflection points?

Base scenario: EBITDA breakeven Month 7, cash never at risk — Series A path clear at 10× ARR
Conservative scenario: Seed buffer holds, but cumulative EBITDA insufficient without $1.5M bridge or 30% OpEx cut post-Month 12
Aggressive scenario: Operating breakeven Month 7, $84M implied Series A valuation at Month 18 (21× seed return)
Scenario divergence: Conservative vs. aggressive cash gap reaches $25M by Month 18 — GTM execution in Months 7–10 is the pivotal window

SQL: SUM() OVER (running totals) · UNION ALL (three-statement assembly) · Correlated subqueries (scenario switcher) · MIN() + RANK() OVER() (inflection points) · CASE WHEN · JOIN

Decision Enabled: Three-statement model reveals a 14-month base-case runway post-seed. Aggressive scenario achieves breakeven before Series A trigger. Board recommendation: gate headcount additions on MoM ARR growth exceeding 12%; trigger Series A process by Month 12.